Could an Asteroid Hit the Moon? Rising Odds and What It Means for the Future

Asteroids and other space objects have long been a subject of fascination and concern for astronomers, scientists, and space agencies alike.

The potential for an asteroid to collide with Earth has always been a topic of speculation and study, but recent developments surrounding asteroid 2024 YR4 have shifted the focus towards a more unusual scenario: a potential asteroid collision with the Moon.

While Earth remains safe from the immediate threat of asteroid YR4, the probability of the asteroid hitting the Moon is steadily increasing.

In this article, we explore the growing concerns about YR4, its potential impact on the Moon, and what this means for both scientific research and future planetary defense strategies.

What is 2024 YR4?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object that gained significant attention due to its size and potential to impact Earth.

Measuring approximately 174-220 feet, YR4 is large enough to be classified as a “city killer,” a term used to describe asteroids capable of causing massive damage if they collide with Earth. I

ts discovery in late 2024 raised alarms within the scientific community as the asteroid’s trajectory placed it on a potential collision course with Earth, particularly on December 22, 2032.

The Early Concerns: Was Earth at Risk?

When YR4 was first discovered, its proximity to Earth and size prompted widespread concern.

According to the Minor Planet Center, which is responsible for tracking asteroids and comets, YR4’s collision probability with Earth briefly rose to a record 3.1%, a historically high figure that led NASA and other space agencies to focus their efforts on studying the asteroid.

At the time, YR4 became the only object among more than 37,000 known large space rocks with a chance of hitting Earth anytime soon.

The likelihood of a direct impact was significant enough to warrant close monitoring, as any collision with such a large asteroid could cause catastrophic damage, especially if it struck a populated area.

NASA’s Webb Telescope and the Observations of YR4

Thanks to advances in technology, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), launched by NASA in 2021, has become an invaluable tool for observing asteroids like YR4.

This powerful infrared telescope allows scientists to obtain more detailed data about asteroids, including their size, composition, and trajectory.

Webb’s observations in March 2025 provided crucial insights into the size and movement of YR4, revealing that it could be as large as a 10-story building.

In March, Webb’s observations increased the asteroid’s impact probability with the Moon from 1.7% to 3.8%, a significant rise that indicated a growing likelihood of collision.

The most recent observations, made in May 2025, raised these odds further to 4.3%.

This increase has led NASA to take more proactive steps in studying the asteroid, as the chances of a lunar collision become more likely.

What Are the Odds of YR4 Hitting the Moon?

Despite the rising probability of an impact, the good news is that Earth remains safe from YR4’s path.

NASA has ruled out the asteroid as a direct threat to Earth, and its projected flyby in December 2032 will not result in a collision.

However, the chances of YR4 hitting the Moon have grown significantly, and this has become the primary focus of NASA’s current research.

As of May 2025, the odds of YR4 colliding with the Moon stood at 4.3%. This is a relatively low probability, but it is a figure that continues to rise as scientists collect more data and refine their models.

In the worst-case scenario, if YR4 were to collide with the Moon, it would cause a significant impact, but the Moon’s orbit around Earth would remain unaffected.

While the Moon is not home to any population centres or infrastructure, an asteroid impact would still have important implications for scientific research and space exploration.

Additionally, such an event would likely be a source of global interest, with astronomical agencies around the world closely monitoring the situation.

The Impact of YR4 on Lunar Research and Space Exploration

An asteroid impact on the Moon, particularly one of the size of YR4, would generate significant interest within the scientific community.

The collision could provide a unique opportunity to study the impact dynamics on the lunar surface, including the formation of craters and the ejection of lunar material.

This would be valuable for future lunar missions, especially as humans are expected to return to the Moon in the coming decades through NASA’s Artemis programme and other international projects.

In addition to its scientific value, an asteroid impact on the Moon could also raise questions about the preparedness of planetary defence systems.

While current technologies are not designed to protect the Moon specifically, the event would highlight the need for global collaboration in preparing for and mitigating the risks posed by near-Earth objects (NEOs).

A Wake-Up Call for Planetary Defence

Although the probability of a catastrophic asteroid impact on Earth remains extremely low, events like the YR4 case serve as important reminders of the risks posed by space rocks.

The increasing odds of YR4 hitting the Moon could prompt further investment into planetary defence strategies, which are designed to identify and mitigate the risks of asteroids and comets that could pose a threat to Earth or other celestial bodies.

In 2022, NASA conducted a successful demonstration of planetary defence with its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully altered the course of the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos.

The success of this mission marked a significant step forward in our ability to defend against potentially dangerous asteroids, and future missions like this may be critical in protecting the Moon, Earth, and other planets in the solar system.

NASA is also developing the NEO Surveyor, a telescope designed to detect and track near-Earth objects that could potentially cause significant damage.

This telescope, which is expected to launch no earlier than 2027, will be capable of identifying 90% of asteroids and comets that are at least 460 feet in diameter and come within 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit.

The Potential Impact of YR4 on the Moon and Earth

Conclusion: Preparing for the Unexpected

While the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 causing an impact on Earth is effectively negligible, the rising probability of a collision with the Moon in 2032 has garnered increased attention.

The data collected by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has provided crucial insights into the asteroid’s trajectory, prompting the scientific community to closely monitor its movement and prepare for the possibility of a lunar collision.

Even though the Moon’s orbit would remain unaffected, the potential scientific value of a collision would be immense, offering researchers a rare opportunity to study impact dynamics on the lunar surface.

Additionally, the growing focus on planetary defence and the development of new technologies like the NEO Surveyor telescope highlight the need for global collaboration in protecting both Earth and the Moon from future asteroid threats.

As we continue to explore our solar system and study the objects that inhabit it, the YR4 case serves as a reminder of the importance of planetary defence.

Whether it’s a threat to Earth or the Moon, the lessons we learn today could shape our ability to respond to future risks posed by space rocks, ensuring that we are prepared for whatever comes our way.